Wednesday, April 22, 2009

http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/chaos_theory.aspx

Unpredictability.

The word chaos in simple terms means disorder, uncontrollable actions caused by any phenomena in the world. In physics chaos means measuring these uncertainties, unpredictability and randomness of nature. One may think that a simple flap of a butterfly’s wing causes no changes in the conditions of temperature, the butterfly being so tiny that it can have no affect on any wind patterns. However in reality a simple flap of a butterfly’s wings could be the cause of a tornado some 100 kilometers away. It is surprising. The science of physics in its way tries to calculate how and why such a phenomenon can occur by something so insignificant.

In a dynamic system small changes in the initial behavior of an object can cause large changes in its outcome. This unlike a linear function of a system can alter the behavior of a system tremendously. Mathematics and physics can calculate predict the changes of the system. Although chaos theory is a new concept, it is very important in fields like economics and weather forecasting. In economics chaos theory can be used to measure the rise and fall of the stock market. Stock markets are non-linear dynamic systems which means changes in the initial conditions can have adverse effects later on, however even markets show patterns. In the short run of a market economy, one cannot predict the outcome of an economy however in the long run using chaos theory can be used to predict the situation of the market. In weather forecasting chaos theory can be used to predict weathers of any number of days ahead. However this being a very complex equation because variables like temperature, air pressure, wind speed and humidity have to be taken into account. Upon entering these values in a super computer the weather forecast for second can be predicted, entering those values again can predict the weather one second ahead of that. Repeating this the weather can be predicted but even if there is a small calculation error like a miscalculation of 0.0000000001 units, can completely alter the forecast.   

However every system has a drawback. Chaos theory cannot predict accurately the outcomes of systems. The more number of variables in a system the less accurate a prediction is. The inputs of variables in a system have to be chosen with precision and accuracy otherwise the theoretical answer will be wrong.

Since the time science came into existence one has always tried to calculate and hypothesis things. However most of those calculations were of linear equations without taking into consideration different variables. With the advent of Einstein mathematical and physical equations reached a new level with his theories of relativity. Trying to predict the outcome of systems with variability is something, which cannot be done easily. The term ‘Chaos Theory’ came into existence in the late twentieth century and has helped scientists to get better understandings of dynamic systems and its behaviors. Chaos theory is applicable to any situation in ones life.   

 

 

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